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What makes this different from "one head and one tail"?
This question specifies which coin must be heads and which must be tails. We need the FIRST flip to be heads AND the SECOND flip to be tails. The outcome HT counts, but TH does not!
Why does order matter?
Think of it this way: "First heads, then tails" is a specific sequence. It's like asking for a password — "AB" and "BA" are different, even though they use the same letters.
The question as an intersection:
We need two conditions to both be true:
We want P(A ∩ B) = P(A) × P(B) since the flips are independent.
HH
HT
TH
TT
Only HT matches (not TH - order matters!)
Identify the individual probabilities
P(first coin = heads) = ½ (heads is one of two equally likely outcomes)
P(second coin = tails) = ½ (tails is one of two equally likely outcomes)
Check if events are independent
Yes! What happens on the first flip has no effect on the second flip. Each coin doesn't "know" what the other coin landed on.
Apply the multiplication rule for independent events
Result:
Let's verify by counting all possibilities:
Both methods give the same answer, confirming our result!
"First H AND Second T" = 1/4
Only HT works
"One H AND One T (any order)" = 1/2
Both HT and TH work
By not specifying order, we allow twice as many favorable outcomes, doubling the probability!