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Why are coin flips independent?
A coin has no memory. It doesn't "know" what happened on the previous flip. Getting heads on flip 1 doesn't make heads more or less likely on flip 2. Each flip is a fresh 50/50 chance.
What does "two heads in a row" mean mathematically?
We need BOTH events to happen:
We want P(A AND B), which for independent events = P(A) × P(B).
The Multiplication Rule for Independent Events:
This only works because A and B don't affect each other!
First Flip: Heads
Second Flip: Heads
Result:
1/4
1/4
1/4
1/4
Each outcome has equal probability of 1/4